Operating rules
The product has two jobs: compare the price performance of the AI stack and keep the thesis underneath each basket explicit, sourced, and falsifiable.
← Back to sector monitor01 · Construction
Every member is measured in its own listing currency. Cross-company comparison uses returns, never nominal prices. The current public feed supplies closing prices rather than adjusted closes, so dividends and distributions are excluded.
member return = current close ÷ prior valid close − 1
The daily basket return is the arithmetic mean of valid constituent returns observed on that date. A holiday or unavailable listing is omitted, not forward-filled and not treated as zero.
basketₜ = basketₜ₋₁ × (1 + mean of available member returnsₜ)
1D, 5D, 1M, and 3M use 1, 5, 21, and 63 observed basket sessions. YTD uses the final available prior-year close when present. The chart rebases the chosen window to 0%.
The comparison control measures each basket against SPY as a broad U.S. equity benchmark. SPY is a comparator, not a hedge recommendation.
relative return = (1 + basket return) ÷ (1 + SPY return) − 1
Benchmark source: State Street ↗02 · Data
Production can request one year of daily chart history through the existing server-side market-data provider interface. Responses are cached briefly, credentials are not required, and missing symbols remain visibly unavailable.
Yahoo Finance chart data ↗03 · Research
Power
Capacity additions, standardization, or project delays remove the scarcity premium faster than demand grows.
Suppliers
Foundry and memory capital intensity falls structurally or tool reuse materially lengthens replacement cycles.
Packaging
Capacity catches demand, yields normalize rapidly, or architectures reduce packaging intensity.
Semis
Order concentration, inventory, or capacity additions turn the basket into a lower-quality proxy for AI demand.
Memory
HBM commoditizes quickly, conventional memory weakens, or aggressive capacity recreates a severe downcycle.
GPU
Utilization falls, alternatives erase platform advantages, or efficiency gains sharply reduce required accelerator units.
CPU
Accelerator integration or custom silicon compresses host CPU content and economics faster than cluster volumes grow.
Network
Standardization, integration, or slower cluster growth commoditizes switching and optics faster than volumes expand.
Neoclouds
Customer concentration, refinancing needs, or falling compute prices expose weak unit economics or stranded capacity.
Lab proxies
Governance, dilution, capital commitments, or a weak commercial link make the public security a poor proxy for frontier-model value.
Working five-layer map
04 · Governance